measuring the innovation economy

Currently, in the macroeconomic environment,  we have a variety of indicators of economic progress, though they seem to operate in an ‘aggregate’ sense, reporting quantitative indications of progress or lack thereof, rather than making any real qualitative assessment about the economy, or even more detailed quantitative pictures that people can understand as it relates to their daily experience.  What is needed seems to be a critical re-assessment of how we measure innovation and therefore better map our progress.

Data on the number of existing and new ‘jobs’ and unemployment data are long-term indicators as investment and activity do not directly translate into jobs gained immediately; furthermore, as mobility and multi-locational trends continue, jobs may not even be registered in the same place where the work occurs, especially with large corporations and multinationals. As mentioned earlier, much economic activity may not be captured in specific jobs data, but is supportive of the innovation economy as a whole.  As companies disaggregate, and consulting/freelance networks increase, we will likely see a further diffusion of jobs per company decline, and the number of companies increasing, but which will be less geographically proximate.  There are a number of additional measures being employed more recently to try and ‘read in’ the nuances within the economy, such as ‘quit rate’ to demonstrate people feeling ‘free’ to move on from existing jobs that may not fit, since there are fewer explanations to this transformative and unique period of slow economic growth.[1]

Looking at GDP per capita, perhaps the most appropriate measure of proportional activity in a place, which covers a broad variety of economic ‘inputs’ and ‘outputs’ and is generally a measure that lags actual activity.   However, even after decades of use, the GDP measurement tool has not fully been calibrated with the innovation economy.  In April 2013, an NPR report alerted the author that the GDP will be adjusted upward, to finally include R&D spending as a measure of inputs/investments into the economy. This is 2013! [2]  Even world-leading economic analysis engines such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have released materials recently discussing the limitations of GDP and other macroeconomic measures, designed for keeping track of economies on an overall long-term growth trajectory,  to show true activity in the economy.[3]

Our standard measure of innovation ‘productivity,’ has been based on  ‘patents ‘ or licensing activity, but increasingly, these metrics not appear to measure the valuable part of innovation — the moment of knowledge transfer.  Patenting is a legal process that fully documents the intellectual property of an invention, but many innovations that occur prior to an official Intellectual Property (IP) filing may emerge as unique products/services, and/or may catalyze new lines of inquiry that would result in a later time in a patent.  Therefore patents and company formation seem to be just the tip of the iceberg, of what is actually happening, and do not reflect the environment in which the innovation is happening (the environment of business activity or physical context being perhaps more conducive to the innovation act).

As alternative measures, there are some additional ways to look at the innovation economy.  The field of bibliometrics, which studies quantities and patterns in published papers, tends to gain an additional perspective of innovation economy activities, but publishing articles on innovation processes and products is not consistent across innovation industries.  Examining articles published does show an increase in collaborative submissions over time, across jurisdictional boundaries, but makes that data hard to ‘match’ with other specific location-based data (such as tax filings or jobs). As defined by the private research group Science-Metrix in their study on collaboration potential, using MSA counties and cited/published paper data, a high collaboration rate is an indicator of a productive innovation culture. More importantly, the research showed that smaller MSAs (population) are keen to collaborate, but in proportion (i.e., scale) they are in fact significantly ‘collaborating’.  Currently, the top 10 collaborative regions, when adjusted for size, are Durham, Baltimore, Seattle, Tucson, Washington, D.C., Boulder, New Haven, St. Louis, San Francisco, and San Diego,[4] incidentally all considered ‘secondary’ markets.

MSA Explorer SampleThis MSA Explorer tool, created by Science-Matrix, is an interactive map that looks at the propensity to collaborate based on published papers with multiple authors.  This map shows Winston Salem’s propensity to collaborate and with whom. http://www.science-metrix.com/MSAExplorer/

 More importantly, some areas are more prone to collaboration and knowledge transfer activities. Many studies point to factors of geographic proximity, spontaneity, regional events, and social networks that promote regional scientific collaboration.  In a similar vein, Sandy Pentland, MIT Media Lab professor, and many other leading scientists are studying how Big Data and the analytics of new technology ‘fingerprints’ could lead to reliable short-term (and quicker) reflections of economic activity.  This author has always wanted to record daily life changes that, if tracked over time, might provide insight into the increase in ‘urban confidence’ that is a parallel sign of economic development: Increase of lawn games in public parks, length of lines waiting to get into popular restaurants, or increase of the act of ‘bumping into someone’ on the street that might lead to a new idea/collaboration or

[1] Apparently this is a rate that is more robust in a better economy. Currently at 1.7%, this rate has increased recently, which is a good sign, but has been higher in the past. Sabri Ben-Achour, “Why the Fed Wants You to Quit your Job” on Marketplace Public Radio. 2 May 2013,  http://www.marketplace.org/topics/economy/why-fed-wants-you-quit-your-job

[2] Albert Sung, “Seeking Alpha: US Government Invents New Way of Calculating GDP”, website http://seekingalpha.com/article/1368001-u-s-government-invents-new-way-of-calculating-gdp

[3] Manik Shrestha and Marco Marini, Quarterly GDP Revisions in G20 Countries: Evidence from the 2008 Financial Crisis, IMF Working Paper, March 2013 , p 3. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp1360.pdf

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[4] Beauchesne and Archambault, Conference Presentation by Science Metrix

 

connective development: recognizing the networked city to inform economic development strategy

At this moment of global economic transition, it is time to revisit Economic Development policy in order to further fuel recovery (and future sustainability!) — policy/practice to date have not resulted in real progress. In fact, policy at federal, state and local levels have been relatively unchanged for decades while the basic economic foundation of this country (and the world) has shifted dramatically since the early 90’s.

It has been observed by many that the engine of an innovation economy is the knowledge producing institutions, and the resultant business development activities both from direct technology transfer, and supportive SMEs. Most importantly these institutions and corporations, as well as the people inside of them, are no longer in just one place–people, knowledge, and the money that supports their endeavors are connected to and moving between multiple cities, connected more efficiently through electronic connectivity.

Many of the world’s leading academic institutions, corporations, and contract research and development labs are located in ‘secondary’ urban markets which are in fact as critical an engine to the economy as the primary cities, especially if considered in aggregate, and in connection with other research hubs. According to Joel Kotkin, these cities in the US contribute about 70% of national GDP, and are the fastest growing (population and number of jobs) in the country, up to 15% greater than the largest cities.[1]  According to McKinsey this is a global trend, where ‘middleweight’ cities will provide more robust growth than ‘megacities.’ [2] These cities could accelerate their productivity if better supported with innovative economic development policy that leverages the increasing flows of talent, capital and knowledge between them to build more effective critical mass, and be a bigger boost to the economy.

Instead of focusing on city to city comparison and competition, the conversation about innovation should recognize the network between these specific places which ultimately boosts growth and economic sustainability.  Networked Cities should be the underpinning for Economic Development Strategy

Inspirational images–connecting between places, and being in places that inspire innovation:

0511_nakedcity_debord_jorn                                network city illustration

(T) Guy Debord, Asger Jorn, 1957, Naked City (psicogeografía urbana)

(B) adam greenfield http://www.flickr.com/photos/studies_and_observations/3999248192/


[1] Kotkin, Joel, Small Cities are Becoming a New Engine of Economic Growth, Forbes 5/8/12. http://www.forbes.com/sites/joelkotkin/2012/05/08/small-cities-are-becoming-the-main-engine-of-economic-growth/

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[2] McKinsey Global Institute: March 2011

connective development : a blog-thesis conversation that leads to real strategies!

IMAG1132The project starts!

I am writing a thesis for my MBA program, which is intended to be an integration of some ideas I started working on in my last 5 years and themes studied this year in an effort to learn the breadth of issues that cities face worldwide in supporting their economies (specifically with an eye towards accelerating innovation).  Some theories started emerging while leading the Economic Development Corporation of New Haven, and others were initially encountered working in Mayor Bloomberg’s administration (term 2) within Economic Development at the ‘dawn’ of our new economy post 2008 crash.  The following posts will outline some thoughts, some data, and some observations, and certainly some opinions.

After working for the last two months of throwing things down on paper, doing much background research on who might be studying which themes that I”ve uncovered, and setting up the framework for this project, I’m ready to start writing!  After the research, it is pretty clear that there are many many smart people out there trying very hard to figure out how to best spur economic growth. However, I do continue to return to an idea that our tools and frameworks (which are mono-geographic by design, and by political history) are hemming us in, and creating much waste in its wake. I chose to do this blog as a way of breaking the ‘ominous’ scale of a thesis down to bite size pieces, and to hopefully engage with a broader audience of readers and people interested in the progress of these thoughts.
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As I’ve never done a project of this scale before, I would like your help! Please feel free to make a comment, or drop me a line with your thoughts/resources/links as I pull the pieces and ideas for my thesis together. I’m anxious to make this thesis more of an annotated conversation leading to a set of real-time strategies that could be employed by cities/institutions/corporations to accelerate localized (and therefore the national) economies, as well as their ‘connected’ triple bottom line.

Please note: I am in the process of making sure that my thoughts are well organized and communicated, while working on my skills to make sure I cite work by others correctly. I am very aware that I”m entering new personal territory of sharing thoughts, and presenting ‘original work’, and also very aware that i’m inspired by many others, and standing (if i’m lucky!) on the shoulders of others…..

boston’s original emerald necklace and its municipal necklaces

Inspired by the historic greenway developed in the late 19th century for Boston, by Frederick Law Olmstead, it dawned on me that an equally important set of ‘rings’ around Boston are historic and currently critical supportive economies of the smaller cities in New England.  If one were to look at successive waves of economic development that produced mini-economies distributed throughout New England, and transportation infrastructure that links them, one could see a pattern of many necklaces.  These interconnected relationships are critical for understanding both the ‘metropolitan’ development challenges and opportunities.

Drawing a ring around the ‘Hub’ city you could draw on nearer economies that ring on 495, such as Lowell/Lawrence, Worcester, Providence RI and Fall River/New Bedford–these cities all have independent industrial foci historically, and have served as important supportive immigrant hubs to the overall New England economy. As development and economic pressures create less affordability in the Boston core, these cities will become increasingly important as part of the network of choices available for residential and commercial development.  Although better connected by roadway than other transportation infrastructure, there is intra-regional train transport to the ‘core.’

Going out one further ring, you start to recognize another ‘chain’ of New England cities that have the ability to have their own identity, regionally, as well as a growing commercial hubs of their own. Portland ME, Manchester NH, Springfield MA, Hartford CT, and New London CT.  However, with current economic state-led policies, it is likely that they will be considered independent of these other centers, and in fact poised to ‘compete’ which may promote inefficient and wasteful efforts, especially within Economic Development agencies.  Broadly they can stand on their own feet, but they are increasingly important as alternative options for talented people to move to, and could provide additional assets to the overall mega- regional economy if part of a comprehensive collaborative vision.  Instead of a connective tissue of greenspace (such as the Emerald Necklace), a connective tissue of talent (one that is mobile and interconnected!) should be the basis for developing policy that helps facilitate and support these ‘rings.’
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Although spatially and geographically rings, these cities have more complex patterns of connectivity that need to be considered…and although the regions in between are also part of the overall economy, the city to city relationship can be enhanced for further productivity and growth, especially across state boundaries (and policy jurisdictions)  that might be getting in the way.

Emerald Necklace Map

inspiration–where it all began

2011NewHavenOrientation-BIO_Page_1The remainder of this ‘blog’ voyage will be dedicated to documenting my thesis–both process and content–which is an opportune chance to start putting on paper what I’ve been blabbing about for years. However, before launching into the full thesis ‘posts,’ I thought I should identify where it all started.  In my last job leading the Economic Development Corporation of New Haven, I did much work to figure out the mismatch between how much seemed to be going on in the city, an environment ripe with opportunity despite its small scale, but that New Haven could not get the traction it needed (private and federal resources, mostly), and frankly deserved.

I was amazed by this image, produced by Olivier H Beauchesne in January 2011. A map of scientific collaborations throughout the US. In fact the full map was the entire world, which was equally as inspiring, but as I was working in New Haven CT which is often ‘left off the map.’ Instantly i could see how ‘connected’ all of our centers of innovation were, and In fact New Haven was right in the middle of the brightest line on the map. I used this map frequently in presentations about the City, and of course others were equally amazed. The map shows the connectivity, between places, and it seemed fluid, dynamic, and beautiful. Most importantly, these flows did not seem to be impeded by state (or country) lines.  This visualization led to where I am with my thesis topic–trying to understand the connectivity between places to better direct economic development activity/funds especially to support the innovation economy.

Also in the movie ‘Is the Man who is Tall Happy’ was a wonderful exchange between the filmmaker and Professor Noam Chomsky about inspiration.  In addition to all the complex theories that Professor Chomsky outlined, he answered very simply about Inspiration–that it just ‘comes.’ And that you can’t explain it–it an just hit you.  Of course there are many things that could lead to that moment, but that the moment itself is inexplainable….this image summarized very quickly my intuitive understanding of our situation, and inspired me to keep trying to connect the dots and make sure that New Haven (and other small cities) could be as meaningful and relevant to the overall economy as I know it could be.
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images source: http://olihb.com/2011/01/23/map-of-scientific-collaboration-between-researchers/

 

structural and linear proximity–what does it mean to be close?

man who is tallAs i look at ways of explaining my basic thesis concept (coming soon, next post?), I realize that one of the things i’m trying to do is redefine ‘proximity’ from a more geographic centric approach to one that involves connecting ‘like’ places.  Although I have just begun the research process (i’m a novice at that too), it seems that there are only a few references to alternate forms of proximity, at least within Economic Development and the growth of cities.

A scholar Alain Rallet has suggested something to imply ‘organization or functional proximity’ as a way of linking ‘aligned’ functional activities as being a key driver in innovation. This truly seems to represent the idea of scientific researchers who collaborate without regard to specific geography, and more related to expertise/field and specific university resources.   According to Rallet, “ combined with the mobility of human resource is an alternative basis for knowledge exchange that no longer requires permanent co-location…case studies on localized networks…reveals that organizational proximity appears as a stronger support of technology transfer and innovation diffusion than geographical proximity.” (1998, On Geography and Technology, The Case of Proximity Relations in Localized Innovation Networks,  Clustes and Regional Specialization, PIon Publications, London)

After seeing a screening of a new inspirational film ‘Is the Man who is Tall Happy’ by Michel Gondry, i have found a great language theory that fits my nascent thinking perfectly, thanks to linguist, scholar and thought leader, Noam Chomsky.  In a description of the way children approximate and learn complex linguistic structures, after years of acquisition, Noam Chomsky deconstructs the very title of the film to explain the complex language structure that is in the end so simple, even a child understands it immediately.  He describes the way that a sentence ‘The man who is tall is happy’ can be quickly converted into the sentence ‘Is the man who is tall, happy?’  He says that very particular, even children know that they use the second ‘is’ to form the initial question, and not the first, almost intuitively.  For example, the sentence ‘is the man who tall is happy?’ would rarely be uttered, even from a child.

I haven’t figured out the graphics on this program yet, but Chomsky describes the fact that the original sentence, there is a ‘subject’ which is ‘the man who is tall,’ and that the predictive is the ‘is happy’.  Therefore, although the first ‘is’ is in the first part of the sentence, in linear construction, the second ‘is’ is more important and has more ‘weight’, structural construction.
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Although as we know, everything has meaning in my thesis, this particular one makes sense because knowledge transfer is facilitated by language (and culture). Therefore, one could understand that the ‘weight’ of the key factor in construction of knowledge transfer therefore doesn’t have to be linear (or physical spatial) proximity, but structural (or organizational) proximity. Still requiring on occasion a face-to-face meeting, but the facts of collaboration and connection are more important than the ability to be in the ‘same’ or traditionally proximate places….

image from http://www.firstshowing.net/2013/watch-first-trailer-for-michel-gondrys-noam-chomsky-documentary/

 

thesis interrupted–novice researcher thinks that all scholarly theories apply to her topic

IMAG1109It’s true that the last time i did a research paper was before the dawn of the internet.  Therefore, the early work to look thru relevant research on my thesis topic has been both exciting and really very overwhelming. Having such information at my fingertips has been like standing on the beach in a tsunami, hoping that i’ll keep my head above water.  I have managed to find a topic that seems to pull in every theory ever invented…or is that just a sign that I don’t know how to narrow my focus? Network Theory, Judo Strategy, New Economic Geography, Innovation Cluster Theory, etc…it all seems so appropriate as  a reference, and the documentation is endless! There are many smart thinking documents out there, how in the world can my simple passions/thoughts be meaningful in a world full of giant thoughts?

Aside from the pure indulgence that this research period affords me, i’m also completely enthralled and annoyed by all of the methods of workflow management out there.  It’s hard enough for me to coordinate address book/contact lists between devices and social media platforms, let alone put all of my work in ‘one place’!   So far i’ve been utilizing Evernote as a great single multi-device platform to keep track of my brilliant ideas–from day long research spa days (delightfully uninterrupted snow days….) to classroom distractions and to middle of the night inspirations.  However, I still fall back on translating ideas into post-it notes, post it notes organized and back into a word document, and a very messy ‘ongoing’ bibliography.  Mostly because i’m too concerned about the time it will take to learn a new program that will ‘cite’ for me.

Luckily, this thesis is for a management school–so the scholarship scan can be broad, but I only have 2 months to go and much to put on paper!  Instead of searching all strands of research, I will set myself a deadline, and move to what I’m really trying to do….Additionally, i will work to streamline my writing through blogging, and hoping that the bibliography and footnotes at the end will not be too painful.  Finally, as i toggle between thinking that my ideas are useful to the world and that i’m stating the obvious, Iwill blog most of the sections on this blog, and I welcome your comments!
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amsterdam 2013

IMG_0938particularly enchanted with the black buildings and white trim in the canal area.  it’s incredibly contemporary, and clean, the contrast to the grey sky sharp. Although a darker building is not always friendly, this one is due to the white trim, multi-pane windows, and overall informal composition of windows. Through time, Singapore has placed itself as one of the best drugs for the soft tab viagra treatment of animals and to improve their health. It is quite easy to understand as one has to be careful of is that it canadian viagra is a low quality medicine and will not perform perfectly. The medicine works so fast that its effects can be felt as quickly as half an hour after consumption Produces go right here cheap cialis from canada Most convenient of all ED medications and no need to are afflicted with male impotence and also alternative lovemaking challenges plus there’s no need to put up with TMJ, the common symptoms of this tragic problem are chronic jaw pain, earaches and neck pain. Take eight to ten drops of this massage oil and massage the male organ with this levitra 20mg online oil two times daily with plain water or milk for three to four months.  This particular building’s whimsical  pattern spoke of a series of decisions made from the inside, functional, as well as a long storied existence.  The building has many tales to tell….

first words

earlyrising

there was always a thrill of starting that new sketchbook, but that first blank page very daunting. a new blog seems to have the same paralyzing effect. However, with consideration to a great writer’s inspiration, i will now start, so that i can finish, and then really start……
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“The time to begin writing an article is when you have finished it to your satisfaction. By that time you begin to clearly and logically perceive what it is that you really want to say.”
– Mark Twain’s Notebook, 1902-1903